In my previous installment of Mathhammer 101, I explained a method of getting the most effective army for the least money. In those calculations, points were used as the sole measure of effectiveness. Of course, anyone who’s been around the wargaming block knows that points are an imperfect measure of effectiveness. Dozens of models lie unused at the bottom of a carrying case because they’re “not worth its points.”
The problem is, points are only roughly related to effectiveness, and even “effectiveness” itself is a slippery term. A 100 pt model is not always twice as effective as a 50 pt model (for some definition of “effectiveness”). An upgrade that costs 10 pts does not always make you 10 pts-worth more effective.
To try to at least roughly decide whether a model or upgrade is “worth its points”, you can calculate its kills per point, or kpp.
This is calculated by figuring out how likely it is to kill an enemy model, divided by how many points it costs. Doing this for a variety of units or upgrade permutations can give you a guideline for which units or upgrades are “worth it” and which “aren’t.”
For example, a Termagaunt with Spine Fists fires one shot, which is likely to cause 0.75 hits (BS 3 w/ re-roll), inflict 0.38 wounds (S 2 vs. T 3), and kill 0.38 Guardsmen (denying armor saves). Divided by the cost of a Gaunt with Spine Fists (5 pts), that leads to 0.075 kills per point.
Giving the Gaunt Toxin Sacs will obviously make it more likely to kill a Guardsman, but will it make it effective enough to be worth the points increase?
Such a Gaunt will still shoot once, and hit 0.75 times. It will now cause 0.5 wounds (S 4 vs. T 3), killing 0.5 Guardsmen. This Gaunt is more likely to kill a Guardsman, but it is also more expensive. Its points cost is now 8 pts, for 0.0625 kpp, which is less than the non-Toxin-Sacs version.
Despite the fact that the Gaunt is more likely to kill a Guardsman, the associated points increase is not worth the cost.
So I got cracking, trying to figure out which combinations of upgrades yield the highest kpp for Tyranid units — Tyranids are a tempting subject, since they have so many different options, and since I’ve been thinking about buying some lately. A couple hours with laptop and codex in hand, and I had all the data I needed. As with my previous Mathhammer post, my calculations are available in this spreadsheet. Now, the results:
Gaunts
- Against Guardsmen, a Gaunt with Spine Fists has the highest kpp (0.075)
- Against Marines, a Gaunt with Fleshborer has the highest kpp (0.021)
Hormagaunts
- Against Guardsmen, a Hormagaunt with Toxin Sacs has the highest kpp (0.062)
- Against Marines, a Hormagaunt with Toxin Sacs and Adrenal Glands (WS) has the highest kpp (0.017)
Genestealers
- Against Guardsmen, a Genestealer with Toxin Sacs, Scything Talons and Implant Attack has the highest kpp (0.120)
- Against Marines, a Genestealer with Implant Attacks has the highest kpp (0.068)
Shooty Warriors
- Against Guardsmen, a Warrior carrying dual Devourers and Enhanced Senses has the highest kpp (0.085)
- Against Marines, dual Devourers with Toxin Sacs and Enhanced Senses has the highest kpp (0.028)
Stabby Warriors
- Against Guardsmen and Marines both, dual Scything Talons with Toxin Sacs has the highest kpp (0.074 and 0.027 respectively)
Before you start writing a comment about how I’m retarded for thinking that such-and-such is the best option, etc., keep in mind — I’m not saying that any of these are the best at killing, just that they’re the most effective for the points.
And as with all things Mathhammer, all of this is taken in a vacuum, something that can’t be done in real life. The range of weapons is not taken into account at all. Upgrades that don’t directly effect offensive ability (e.g., Lash Whip, Adrenal Glands (I), Extended Carapace, Leaping, etc.) are not considered (but could be, in another post). The army surrounding the unit and how they’re used together are not things that can be accounted for in such a simple calculation — Mathhammer is not Warhammer, it is statistics, and it is not meant to guarantee tournament glory. Just a mean headache.
Reply in the comments if you think I’ve calculated something wrong (entirely possible), or want me to figure out relative kpp’s for other Tyranid units or units in other armies, or if you just think my hair looks nice today (I conditioned!).
Tags: gaunt, genestealer, hormagaunt, kills per point, kpp, tyranids, warrior
I think it is odd that implant attack is the highest on genestealers.
A genestealer without implant attack is cheaper and operates the EXACT same way against marines. Implant attack only works on multi-wound models.
I thought Implant Attacks effected the whole unit for some reason. Like if the unit rolls 5 saves, and fails 3 of them, the unit takes 6 wounds. But yeah, that doesn’t make any sense. So Implant Attacks are pretty stupid then, only working against multi-wound models…
I wrote an article similar to this for thetaken a few years ago.
Scything Talons also don’t take into account you could buy more Genestealers for your unit, which makes them more survivable, and thus, more likely to get into combat. I’d rather get another stealer who gets 2 attacks, and a bonus for charging and makes my unit more likely to actually make it into combat any day.
Excellent article though, good job!
Lol gay